Pennsylvania Trust

Does the Election Matter to the Markets?

Photo of Tara Hedlund

The 2016 U.S. presidential election represents one of the two remaining volatility events for this year. The other is a possible Federal Reserve interest rate increase in December. While the financial markets endure a U.S. presidential election every four years, given the increased political polarization, this year does seem to have the potential for greater near-term market volatility. There are three potential election outcomes that may impact the financial markets.

Three Scenarios

The first is the most likely scenario based on current polling data—a Democrat in the White House and at least one part of Congress controlled by Republicans. With continuing divided government, we would expect little overall market impact other than perhaps a short-term relief rally.

In the second scenario of one party dominating both the White House and Congress, we would expect an initial negative market reaction. Sectors that may be more highly impacted would include financial services, healthcare, and energy.

Finally, the last scenario (which is the least likely based on current polling data) would be a Republican in the White House with a divided Congress. We would expect a short-term negative market reaction given the uncertainty introduced by the lack of policy history of the Republican candidate.

Markets Will Adjust

At Pennsylvania Trust, we believe that well-diversified portfolios create long-term investment value irrespective of who controls Congress or the White House. With respect to individual stocks, we invest in high-quality companies with positive cash flow generation, strong balance sheets, and management teams committed to shareholder value. Post November 8th, the financial markets will adjust to the new political landscape, and the focus will return to the economy and corporate profits while waiting for the Federal Reserve to make its rate decision in December.

by Tara R. Hedlund, CFA, CPA
Ms. Hedlund is Senior Vice President at Pennsylvania Trust.


Disclosure: Data is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as marketing for any Pennsylvania Trust mandate or service and should not be considered a solicitation or an offer to provide any Pennsylvania Trust service in any jurisdiction where it would be unlawful to do so. The views expressed represent the opinions of Pennsylvania Trust and are not intended as a forecast or guarantee of future results. The sectors, industries, countries and regions discussed herein should not be perceived as investment recommendations and may no longer be held in an account’s portfolio. It should not be assumed that investments in any sector, industry, country or region discussed were or will prove profitable. Sector/industry weights and country and regional allocations of any particular client may vary based on investment restrictions applicable to the account. There may be additional risks associated with international investments. International securities may be subject to market/currency fluctuations, investment risks, and other risks involving foreign economic, political, monetary, taxation, auditing and other legal factors. These risks may be magnified in emerging markets. Pennsylvania Trust believes that transactions in any option, future, commodity, or other derivative product are not suitable for all persons, and that accordingly, clients should be aware of the risks involved in trading such instruments. There may be significant risks which should be considered prior to investing. All securities trading, whether in stocks, options or other investment vehicles, is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. Indices are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.