According to Fed Funds Futures, the market is 100% certain of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its July meeting, in part because data have shown the manufacturing sector of the U.S. economy in decline amid the trade war.
What markets may be ignoring is that services haven’t shown a similar trend. That along with higher consumer credit, real average wages and retail sales (plus July payroll data) just might give the Fed the ability to remain on hold.
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